It’s no secret Denton schools are growing, but that trend doesn’t stop at the district’s limits.

While Denton ISD understandably has a higher number of people moving into its borders, surrounding districts are grappling with a more aggressive rate of growth.

Denton and Argyle ISDs both contract with the same demographer to present each with historic and projected trends in population growth and home sales.

Denton school board members were presented with the most recent data set during a regular board meeting on Dec. 10. Their counterparts in Argyle will have a similar opportunity during Monday evening’s meeting.

Here are five takeaways when comparing the two reports. Aside from the growth rate, they illustrate drastically different repercussions from growth for the neighboring districts, despite similar circumstances leading to population increases in each case.

1. Numbers can be misleading

Just over 7,000 students are expected to enroll in Denton ISD schools over the next 10 years, according to an analysis by Templeton Demographics.

Over the same period, Argyle ISD will add just over 4,900 students. For a district that currently has fewer than 3,500 students, that change is relatively massive compared to Denton’s current enrollment of more than 30,000.

To put it in perspective, if the predictions hold true, Argyle ISD will increase to 2.43 times its current size in 10 years. Denton ISD’s enrollment will increase to 1.23 times its size in the same time frame.

2. Growth isn’t evenly distributed

Argyle ISD’s densest area of growth lies just west of Interstate 35W in the West Elementary School attendance zone, where more than 1,700 new homes are expected to come into play within the next five years.

For Denton’s part, short-term construction is mostly relegated to the U.S. Highway 380 Corridor near Braswell High School and the campuses that feed into it.

Looking several years forward, demographers predict massive development in the Hunter and Cole ranch areas will bring more than 15,000 homes in the district’s southwest corner in what’s currently the Borman Elementary School attendance zone.

That leads into the next takeaway, which illustrates that rapid growth isn’t always sustainable.

3. Denton has greater potential for growth

Despite being outpaced by Argyle ISD in relative growth, it is significant that Denton ISD has far more potential for future growth compared to some smaller districts. In fact, demographers rank Denton ISD within the top five districts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area for projected future home sales, excluding age-restricted subdivisions.

Argyle ranks 19th in the same metric.

4. In with the new ...

Few conversations about school districts are complete without the consideration of property values, being that a such large portions of their budgets depend upon that very thing.

New homes in Denton ISD have only seen an average increase of 51%, and the average new homes price remains roughly $100,000 cheaper when compared to homes in Argyle ISD, where prices have comparatively skyrocketed.

In the past decade, the average price of a new home in Argyle ISD has increased by 92% and now sits at $422,432

5. ... but what about the old?

Despite sustained property value growth across the state, Argyle ISD was somehow outpaced by Denton ISD when it came to the rising value of existing homes.

While the average price in Denton ISD rose 62% to a current total of $286,424, the district’s southern neighbor saw values increase by only 22% since 2010.

In the case of Argyle ISD, it seems that new home prices have simply rapidly increased to nearly rival the cost of an existing home, whereas new construction in Denton ISD remains slightly more expensive than existing homes.

MARSHALL REID can be reached at 940-566-6862 and via Twitter at @MarshallKReid.

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